The Wealth Divide: Will UK House Prices Really Double in the Next Five Years?

In the complex world of property market forecasting, few voices have been as provocative as Gary Stevenson’s. The former Citibank trader turned inequality economist has made a startling prediction that UK house prices will double in the next 5-6 years—a forecast that stands in stark contrast to mainstream property analysts. As specialists in land value optimisation, we at Intelligent Land believe examining such contrarian perspectives is essential for comprehensive market understanding, even when they challenge conventional wisdom.

When the COVID-19 pandemic first struck in 2020, conventional wisdom suggested house prices would fall. The economic uncertainty, job losses, and market disruption seemed to point toward a housing market correction. Yet Gary Stevenson boldly predicted the opposite—that house prices would rise significantly.

He was right.

This wasn’t mere luck. While established institutions projected decline, Stevenson’s understanding of wealth dynamics led him to a conclusion that seemed improbable at the time but proved remarkably accurate. UK house prices surged during and after the pandemic, confounding mainstream economists but validating Stevenson’s contrarian perspective.

We’re not suggesting he’s infallible—far from it. But his track record gives us reason to at least consider his current prediction seriously, even if it initially appears extraordinary.

At the heart of Stevenson’s economic worldview is what he terms the “Wealth Unequal Economy”—a system where a small number of people own most valuable assets, including land and property. His journey to this perspective is fascinating.

Born in 1986 to a working-class family in Ilford, London, Stevenson studied at the London School of Economics before joining Citibank as an interest rate trader in 2008, just as the global financial crisis unfolded. He became a millionaire by betting on economic trends during this period, particularly that interest rates would remain low due to wealth inequality.

After retiring from trading at just 27 years old, he obtained an MPhil in Economics from Oxford University and later launched the YouTube channel “GarysEconomics” during the pandemic, where he campaigns against economic inequality.

Stevenson’s core theory suggests a self-reinforcing cycle:

• The wealthy save rather than spend, investing heavily in property and other assets
• This investment behaviour drives up asset prices while wages remain stagnant
• As asset prices rise, asset owners become wealthier while non-owners fall further behind
• This creates a feedback loop where wealth becomes increasingly concentrated
• Housing becomes primarily an investment vehicle rather than shelter
• Rising house prices transfer wealth from younger generations to older, asset-rich generations

What makes this theory particularly unsettling is not just its logical coherence, but how it challenges our fundamental assumptions about housing as a social good rather than merely an asset class.

Stevenson’s current prediction that UK house prices will double in 5-6 years is based on several factors:

1. Interest Rate Dynamics: He believes that as interest rates drop from their recent highs, asset prices including housing will surge upward
2. Wealth Concentration: He argues that the wealthy will continue to invest in property as a store of value
3. Limited Supply: The UK continues to face housing shortages relative to demand
4. Government Policy: He believes government policies will continue to favour asset holders over wage earners

This prediction stands in stark contrast to mainstream forecasts:

Forecaster	5-Year Growth Prediction	Annual Growth Rate
Gary Stevenson	100% (doubling) in 5-6 years	~15-20% annually
Savills	23.4% over 5 years (2025-2029)	~4-5% annually
JLL	20% over 5 years (2025-2029)	~3-4% annually
South England Prime	16.5% over 5 years (to 2029)	~3% annually

The gap is staggering. While established property consultancies project growth in the 16-23% range over five years, Stevenson anticipates approximately four times that amount. Such a divergence demands our attention, not because we necessarily believe one side or the other, but because the implications of either scenario are profound for our industry.

For those interested in the South of England and Dorset specifically, current data shows a resilient market:

• Average property prices in Dorset range from £337,000 to £387,000 depending on the source
• Market activity shows a 13% increase in new listings, 8% increase in buyer demand, and 15% increase in sales agreed
• Prime properties in the south are forecast to increase by 2% in 2025 and 16.5% over five years to 2029

This regional forecast of 16.5% growth over five years falls significantly below Stevenson’s doubling prediction, suggesting that even if his national forecast proves accurate, regional variations may moderate the impact in the South.

Yet what if they don’t? What if the South of England, with its already robust property values and desirable locations, becomes an even more concentrated target for wealth investment? The implications for local communities, housing affordability, and development strategy would be profound.

Two Fundamentally Different Worldviews

The gap between Stevenson’s prediction and mainstream forecasts reflects fundamentally different views of the UK economy:

Stevenson’s Perspective:

• Wealth concentration is accelerating and self-reinforcing
• Dropping interest rates will cause asset prices to “explode” upward
• Housing functions primarily as an investment vehicle for the wealthy
• Government policies systematically favour asset holders over wage earners

Mainstream Forecasters’ Perspective:

• Multiple market forces, including affordability constraints, moderate growth
• Regional variations significantly impact price trajectories
• Traditional metrics like mortgage rates and wage growth drive the market
• Housing market cycles naturally moderate extreme growth

We don’t claim to know which worldview will prove more accurate. But we do know that understanding both perspectives—and preparing for either scenario—is essential for responsible land development strategy.

For property developers and landowners utilising the Land Value Accelerator (LVA) Method™, these divergent forecasts present both challenges and opportunities that require strategic adaptation. The beauty of optimisation-focused development is that it creates resilience against market uncertainty. By maximising the efficiency and value of every aspect of land development, projects can remain viable across a wide range of market scenarios.

A Humble Consideration of Radical Possibilities

While Stevenson’s doubling prediction may seem extreme, his track record of correctly forecasting the COVID-era housing boom suggests we should at least consider the possibility. The property market has surprised us before.

What if he’s right again?

If UK house prices were to double in 5-6 years, the implications would be profound:

• First-time buyers would face increasingly insurmountable barriers to entry
• The rental sector would likely expand significantly
• Property as an asset class would dramatically outperform most alternatives
• Regional disparities could either narrow or widen dramatically
• Political pressure for intervention in the housing market would intensify

For land developers and investors, such a scenario would dramatically alter optimal development strategies. The LVA Method™’s data-driven approach to land value optimisation would become even more valuable in identifying opportunities that balance maximum returns with market-appropriate product offerings.

We don’t present this scenario to alarm, but rather to encourage thoughtful preparation. After all, the most successful developers aren’t those who perfectly predict the future—they’re those who build flexibility and resilience into their strategies.

The stark contrast between Gary Stevenson’s dramatic prediction and mainstream forecasts highlights the fundamental uncertainty in property market forecasting. While the consensus view suggests moderate growth of 16.5-23.4% over five years, Stevenson’s theory of wealth concentration driving asset price inflation presents a compelling alternative narrative.

For property professionals, the wisest approach may be to prepare for a range of scenarios while closely monitoring the key indicators that might signal which trajectory the market is actually following. By understanding both perspectives—and the economic theories that underpin them—we can make more informed decisions in an increasingly complex property landscape.

In this environment of uncertainty, tools like our Land Value Accelerator Method™ become even more valuable — whether Stevenson’s dramatic prediction materialises or mainstream forecasters’ more moderate outlook prevails.

What remains certain is that those who approach land development with sophisticated optimisation tools will be better positioned to navigate whatever market conditions emerge in the coming years.

This article is part of our thought leadership series on UK property market trends. For more insights on optimising land value in changing market conditions, explore our Land Value Accelerator (LVA) Method™ and how our AI systems can help you maximise returns through intelligent land optimisation.